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手机版时时彩投注网:【一线】中金首席分析师王汉峰:三大因素成2018”预期差”

时间:2018/1/6 15:28:19  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
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腾讯【一线】作者邬川2017年,中国延续2016年已经开始的复苏趋势,人民币走强,港股成为全球表现最好的市场之一。2018年即将到来,有哪些“预期差”会决定来年的投资策略?对此,中金首席策略分析师王汉峰在2018年中金财富论坛上,展望了2018年影响股市的主要“预期差”。在投资实践中,当市场预期与基本面出现不一致的情况时,也即是“预期差”。2017年的A股,呈现了上证50和创业板的两极分化走势,两者指数涨跌幅相差20%以上。对于2018年,是否仍然是押注大蓝筹的单边博弈?有市场人士认为,2018年是赚“预期差”的时机,也就是对于行业、经济、企业、政策的认知预期差,以利润的超预期增长为基石,这对于投资者的研究能力和优势领域提出了更高的要求。王汉峰首先给出了结论:2018年的“股市预期差”主要围绕增长、房地产与流动性三大因素来展开。首先对于“增长”,他认为目前的困难在于宏观调控的影响持续下滑,2018年增长面临挑战。但他仍然乐观,并表示2018年的经济增长很可能是加速而非减速。原因在于,2018年的持续增长动力依旧存在:包括新周期、新动能和新逻辑。新周期即是资本开支周期触底,也就是本轮经济触底最先的征兆;新动能是产业升级、消费拉动;新逻辑是新型城镇化和户籍制度改革成为经济增长新引擎。其次,房地产能否延续2017年的销售增长势头?王汉峰认为会出现明显回落,下行周期开启,销售与投资将双双下滑。最后,市场关注的流动性是否放松?他坦言,在目前金融监管以及去杠杆化的背景下,加之货币政策偏紧,流动性不容乐观。谈及2018年的潜在风险,王汉峰表示,如果增长不是问题,那么通胀压力会大一些。【一线】为腾讯新闻旗下产品,第一时间为你提供独家、一手的商业资讯。

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